Introduction Mongolia faces increasing climate change impacts, including rising temperatures, shifting precipitation, and more frequent extreme weather events, such as dzuds (harsh winters following dry summers). These changes threaten rural communities that rely on livestock and natural resources. Pastoralist communities are particularly vulnerable as their livelihoods depend on livestock, water sources, and pastures, all of which are susceptible to the unpredictable shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns. The remoteness of many rural areas compounds their vulnerability, limiting access to essential resources and support systems. Effective climate adaptation requires locally informed measures developed through collaboration with stakeholders and backed by thorough climate risk assessments. A project by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) is supporting the Ministry of Environment and Tourism of Mongolia[1] and its Climate Change Cooperation and Research Center to assess climate risks, inform Mongolia's National Adaptation Plan (NAP), and develop adaptation measures in three key aimags[2]: Arkhangai, Bayankhongor, and Selenge. Figure 1: Mongolia’s Arkhangai, Bayankhongor, and Selenge Aimags Source: Asian Development Bank. How were climate risks assessed in Arkhangai, Bayankhongor, and Selenge aimags? Climate risk assessment is critical to mitigating the risks associated with climate change. The climate risk assessments in these aimags used a multi-sectoral approach focused on three sub-sectors: water resources management, biodiversity conservation and ecosystem restoration, and ecotourism. Key steps included: Climate data collection and analysis: Indicators, such as air temperature, precipitation, and hydrology, were analyzed using a 1991–2020 climate baseline, with additional historical trend analysis, following World Meteorological Organization (WMO) guidelines. Risk identification: Indicators, including changes in river flows, biodiversity loss, extreme weather events, and ecotourism vulnerability, were mapped based on geographic and climatic factors. A Climate Risk Assessment (CRA) evaluated hazard interactions with system vulnerability, exposure, and adaptive capacity, assessing risk by likelihood and severity. Climate projections: Future climate scenarios were developed using simulations from global climate models and local meteorological data. Adaptation measures: Measures were identified through consultations with local stakeholders, including community leaders, local government officials, and sectoral experts, ensuring local relevance and feasibility. What are the specific climate risks identified in these aimags? Figure 2: Climate Risks in Water Resources, Biodiversity, and Ecotourism for Arkhangai, Bayankhongor, and Selenge Arkhangai Arkhangai Province, located in central Mongolia, is known for its mountainous terrain, including the Khangai Mountains, and its rich natural resources. The province covers an area of 55,313 km² and has a population of around 95,000 people. Its economy is largely based on agriculture, particularly animal husbandry. Arkhangai is also famous for natural landmarks like Terkhiin Tsagaan Lake, which attract ecotourism and offer rich biodiversity. Figure 3: Arkhangai Soum-Level Climate Risk Source: Mongolia Water Forum Uskhelts. Between 1961 and 2020, average temperatures increased by 1.8°C to 2.3°C. Hot summer days above 30°C have become more frequent, and the number of cold days below -30°C has also risen. Water resources River flows have decreased by half over the last 30 years compared to the period between 1961 and 1990, largely due to reduced precipitation (a 20–40 mm annual decrease), impacting pastoral and agricultural livelihoods. Most rivers are at higher risk for water withdrawal during the summer's non-rainy low-water period. Water resources are also at high risk from flash floods across much of the aimag. Biodiversity and ecosystem Rising temperatures and frequent droughts threaten biodiversity and ecosystems in the Khangai Mountains, leading to pasture degradation and the spread of invasive species. Severe winters have intensified, endangering rare plant species such as Kobresia robusta and Botrychium lanceolatum. Ecotourism Arkhangai is a key area for tourism due to its natural attractions, including Ugii Lake and Terkhiin Tsagaan Lake. However, the area is at high risk from flash floods, which threaten tourism infrastructure such as ger camps. Additionally, a lack of proper waste management and sanitation facilities exacerbates the region's vulnerability to environmental degradation. Bayankhongor Located in southwestern Mongolia, this province covers a vast area of 115,977 square kilometers and is geographically diverse, featuring the Khangai Mountains, central steppe, and the Gobi Desert. The economy is traditionally based on livestock, and the province is rich in wildlife and natural attractions, such as the Khaliut hot springs and several saline lakes. Figure 4: Bayankhongor Soum-Level Climate Risk Source: Mongolia Water Forum Uskhelts. Bayankhongor has an extreme continental climate with wide temperature variations. Winter temperatures can drop to -49°C, while summer temperatures can reach 44.9°C. Over the past 30 years, the region has warmed by 2.2–2.4°C. Hot days above 25°C and 30°C have become more common, increasing drought risk and livestock stress. Cold spells below -30°C have generally decreased, except in some areas. Annual precipitation averages only 135.3 mm, mostly occurring in summer. The region is prone to dzuds, heatwaves, and wildfires. Water resources Bayankhongor’s water resources include rivers, lakes, and groundwater reserves, but the region faces severe water shortages, especially in the Gobi Desert. Rivers rely on snowmelt, with flow patterns altered due to rising temperatures and changing precipitation. Lakes such as Buuntsagaan and Orog show fluctuating levels, impacted by climate and human activity. Water quality is also declining, with increasing levels of suspended solids and ammonium nitrogen. The region is at risk of worsening water scarcity, driven by reduced environmental flow, flash floods, and climate change impacts on river regimes. Biodiversity and ecosystem Bayankhongor hosts diverse ecosystems, from mountains to semi-desert regions, with vulnerable flora and fauna, including endangered species. Overgrazing, land degradation, and desertification are accelerating due to human activities and climate change. The region's biodiversity is declining, and pastures are deteriorating. Shifts in vegetation patterns and increasing desertification, driven by changing bioclimatic conditions, pose significant future risks. Habitat loss, reduced water availability, and ongoing land degradation threaten the ecological balance of Bayankhongor's ecosystems. Ecotourism Bayankhongor has strong ecotourism potential with its scenic landscapes, including the Ikh Bogd Mountains, Galuut Canyon, Buuntsagaan and Orog Lakes, and cultural sites like petroglyphs and monasteries. The Shargaljuut hot springs attract many tourists. However, the sector is vulnerable to climate risks, such as extreme weather, water shortages, and environmental degradation, which threaten the sustainability of these destinations. Flash floods during heavy rainfall also pose risks to tourism infrastructure and community resilience. Selenge Selenge is a province in northern Mongolia, bordered by Russia, and named after the Selenge River. Covering 41,152 square kilometers with a population of approximately 108,000, the aimag is known for its agricultural productivity, rich natural resources, and scenic landscapes, including the Selenge–Orkhon forest steppe. Figure 5: Selenge Soum-Level Climate Risk Source: Mongolia Water Forum Uskhelts. Selenge experiences an extreme continental, humid-cool climate, with average annual temperatures ranging from -1.5°C to 1.5°C. Over the past 60 years, temperatures have risen by 1.8–2.2°C, with a notable increase in hot days above 25°C and a decrease in extremely cold days below -30°C. Precipitation has slightly increased but remains unevenly distributed. The region faces natural hazards like floods, droughts, and forest fires, posing risks to the local environment and communities. Water resources Selenge aimag’s water resources are dominated by the Orkhon and Selenge river basins, which are major sources of freshwater in Mongolia. River flows are highly seasonal, peaking in summer and decreasing in winter. Overall, there has been a decline in annual river flow and levels. Groundwater is available but unevenly distributed across the aimag, and increasing extraction raises sustainability concerns. Water quality issues, such as increased suspended solids and nitrogen compounds, indicate pollution. Climate change risks further reduce summer flows and increase flood[3] risks in spring and summer. Biodiversity and ecosystem Selenge’s ecosystems include forest steppe, taiga, and riparian zones, which support diverse species, some of which are rare and endangered. Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns are degrading forests and increasing wildfire risk. Deforestation, pasture degradation, and climate-induced vegetation shifts threaten biodiversity and ecosystem resilience. Overgrazing and land degradation are reducing pasture quality, leading to habitat loss, species decline, and diminished ecosystem services. These challenges pose long-term risks to the region's environmental health and biodiversity. Ecotourism Selenge aimag offers excellent ecotourism potential with its scenic landscapes, cultural landmarks like Amarbayasgalant Monastery, and activities such as hiking and birdwatching.[4] However, climate change poses increasing risks to ecotourism, including higher forest fire risk, flash floods, and extreme weather, which affect both tourists and infrastructure. Rising summer temperatures and declining rainfall also threaten crop production, impacting food security and rural livelihoods.[5] Recommendations Addressing climate risks requires adaptation measures developed collaboratively with local stakeholders and grounded in thorough climate risk assessments. For these aimags, the assessment suggests a focus on building climate resilience in water management, biodiversity conservation, and ecotourism, while supporting the country’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) under the Paris Agreement. An important strategy is enabling communities to identify and implement solutions that best meet their needs. For example, this project provided small grants to 28 local civil society organizations, which improved water access, promoted sustainable agriculture, and created new economic opportunities. Enhance water resource management in vulnerable areas. In Arkhangai and Selenge, efforts focus on strengthening water governance, including watershed rehabilitation, spring protection, and rainwater harvesting for herder communities. In Bayankhongor, where groundwater is crucial, there is an emphasis on planning for sustainable extraction, exploring artificial recharge, and accessing deeper groundwater sources to address drought. Flood management strategies, including flood barriers and early warning systems, are also being implemented in flood-prone areas, particularly in aimag centers and soums near rivers. Strengthen biodiversity conservation and ecosystem restoration. Conservation efforts prioritize protecting rare and endemic species and expanding protected areas in sensitive regions. Restoring degraded pastures and forests is critical, particularly in Arkhangai and Selenge, where ecosystems such as Khangai mountain meadows and the Selenge-Orkhon forest steppe face threats. These initiatives help conserve endangered species while supporting national and international biodiversity targets and addressing resource access challenges. Foster community engagement in climate adaptation. Awareness campaigns and educational programs engage local communities, including schools and herder groups, in biodiversity conservation, ensuring adaptation strategies are both technically sound and socially accepted. Promote sustainable ecotourism for livelihood diversification. In Arkhangai and Bayankhongor, community-based ecotourism provides alternative livelihood options for herders, reducing pressure on natural resources. In Selenge, cross-border ecotourism is being developed with neighboring regions. These efforts aim to promote environmental conservation, support local production, and celebrate nomadic culture. Develop climate-resilient tourism infrastructure. Investments focus on enhancing the resilience of tourism infrastructure, such as camps and guesthouses in flood-prone areas, and on improving sanitation and waste management systems to reduce environmental impacts. By focusing on community-driven solutions, these measures address immediate climate impacts and promote long-term sustainability. Future efforts should prioritize capacity building, knowledge sharing, and scaling successful interventions to ensure resilience across Mongolia’s rural communities in a changing climate. [1] The name of the Ministry changed to the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change in July 2024, following the election. [2] In Mongolia, an aimag is a first-level administrative division similar to a province, and a soum is a second-level administrative division within an aimag, similar to a county or district. [3] National Flash Flood Frequency Map. [4] BirdLife International. 2009. Directory of Important Bird Areas in Mongolia: Key Sites for Conservation. Ulaanbaatar. [5] Selenge aimag Statistics-2020. Ask the Experts Silvia Cardascia Water Resources Specialist, Agriculture, Food, Nature, and Rural Development Sector Office, Sectors Group, Asian Development Bank Silvia Cardascia supports the design of ADB projects on water and natural resources management in the People’s Republic of China and Mongolia. Prior to joining ADB in 2018 as a Young Professional, she was a research assistant at the University of Oxford, a United Nations fellow, and a programme officer for the Italian Agency of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Addis Ababa. She has a MSc in Water Science, Policy and Management from the University of Oxford and an MA in International Relations. Follow Silvia Cardascia on Batimaa Punsalmaa Director General, Mongolia Water Forum Uskhelts Batimaa is a water resources management and climate change expert with 34 years of experience, including managing ADB-financed projects since 2015. She holds a PhD in Geographical Science from the National University of Mongolia and an MSc in Water and Environmental Resources Management from the International Institute for Infrastructural, Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering in Delft, the Netherlands. Davaadalai Batnasan GIS-Hydrologist, Water Authority of Mongolia Davaadalai is an experienced researcher specializing in GIS, water resources, and climate risk assessment. He previously worked as a water program manager at the Mongolia Water Forum, where he contributed to water management in irrigated agriculture, national water security, river basin management, and water supply and sanitation. Verónica Relaño Oceans Director, Onewater Veronica is an experienced researcher with a background in marine biodiversity, social data analysis, and science communication. She holds a PhD from the University of British Columbia and has contributed to marine governance research, focusing on identifying and improving ineffective Marine Protected Areas. A La Caixa Fellow and Charlemagne Academy winner, she has collaborated with organizations such as the World Bank and the European Commission. František Ficek Senior Producer, Onewater František is a senior producer at Onewater with expertise in video production and WASH-related research. He holds a PhD in political geography from Charles University in Prague, with a focus on sanitation policy. He also consults for the World Bank, supporting citywide inclusive sanitation initiatives. Christian Fischer Managing Director, Onewater Chris is a water and communications professional with expertise in knowledge management, data analysis, and strategic communication. A skilled project leader and content creator, he has a multidisciplinary background in economics, biology, and water science from LMU Munich, University of the Basque Country, and the University of Oxford. He consults with the Asian Development Bank, supporting initiatives in agriculture, food, nature, and rural development. Asian Development Bank (ADB) The Asian Development Bank is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 69 members—49 from the region. Its main instruments for helping its developing member countries are policy dialogue, loans, equity investments, guarantees, grants, and technical assistance. Follow Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Leave your question or comment in the section below: View the discussion thread.