Introduction The four atoll nations of Kiribati, Maldives, Marshall Islands, and Tuvalu are undeniably at the top of the list of the most vulnerable to the profound impacts of climate change—facing an existential threat from rising seas and shrinking natural resources. With a total population of over 700,000 inhabitants and a total land area of over 1,300 km2, they stand at the frontline of the global climate crisis. Without climate policies and investments, projections indicate that mean sea levels could rise by up to 1 meter by 2100. Given that the average elevation of these islands is just two meters above sea level, vast portions of their land are at risk of permanent inundation. In an effort to assist in addressing these concerns, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) developed a strategic program called the Triple A "Accelerating Atoll Adaptation" Initiative to help strengthen the climate and disaster resilience capacity of the four atoll nations, which are also part of the bank’s developing member countries. Socioeconomic Implications on Atoll Nations An ADB study noted that without adaptation, impacts of climate risks could increase the economic damage from coastal flooding in atoll nations by nearly 200 times by the end of the century under high emission scenarios. This would result in economic damages ranging from 18% to 58% of their GDPs, leading to a clearly unsustainable financial situation for these countries. Sea level rise in combination with an increased frequency of extreme weather events and prolonged droughts will also lead to the salinization of the very vulnerable freshwater resources. The title of an article in the research journal, Nature, which addressed the urgency of climate adaptation measures in Kiribati captures this well: “Before We Drown We May Die of Thirst.” This highlights the residents’ struggle in accessing clean drinking water well before a rising ocean claims their homes. The socioeconomic implications of these impacts are profound. Forced migration, loss of cultural heritage, and economic instability are not just potential outcomes, but realities that many atoll nations are already grappling with. The rapid rates of urbanization as people seek economic and social opportunities offered by city life aggravate exposure to climate risks. Population density in urban settlements is extremely high, such as Ebeye in Marshall Islands, reaching approximately 30,000 people per square kilometer. The greater area of Malé, the Maldives capital, is of particular concern as continuing immigration from other parts of the archipelago increases the strain on social and public services. Need for Transformational Adaptation Short-term responses, while necessary for immediate relief, are insufficient to address the deep-rooted and long-term challenges faced by these countries. As sea-levels continue to rise and coastal inundation intensifies, a shift to more transformational adaptation strategies will be necessary. Transformational adaptation strategies will leverage an understanding of current and future climate risks (which is a function of hazards, exposure, and vulnerabilities) to identify and prioritize sustainable, integrated, and sequenced adaptation investments across sectors, ensuring long-term resilience and preventing maladaptation. Transformational adaptation concept example of an atoll island. Source: Asian Development Bank. Illustration by Lucas Kukler. Transformational adaptation requires holistic strategies that integrate the latest understanding of science, inclusive governance approaches, local cultural and traditional knowledge, and innovative financing mechanisms. This could include a combination of measures such as improved land use and settlement planning, land reclamation, resilient infrastructures, strengthening building designs, developing green skills, relocation policies, integrated water resources management approaches, improved disaster preparedness, and nature-based solutions. Resources needed for implementing transformational adaptation strategies are greater than currently available. Equally important is the approach to identify the funding and financing of adaptation investments—how investments are identified, prioritized, financed, and maintained. This will differ significantly from business-as-usual practices. For example, the Republic of Marshall Islands “survival plan”, National Adaptation Plan, estimates that protecting all of its atolls to withstand sea level rise would result in costs increasing up to $35 billion for a 2-meter sea level rise from $5 billion for a 0.5-meter sea level rise—equivalent to 125 times and 17.8 times of the country’s GDP in 2023 pegged at $0.28 billion, respectively. Transformational adaptation strategies will also require longer preparation and implementation lead times than investments typically supported under the usual decision making and financing cycles—which means long-term commitment and programmatic approaches for financing. It will also need to promote enabling factors and policy actions to address the underlying drivers of vulnerability, such as land tenure. Building Resilience Through ADB’s Triple A Initiative ADB’s Triple A "Accelerating Atoll Adaptation" Initiative, launched at COP29, is a strategic program aimed at helping strengthen the capacity of Kiribati, Maldives, Marshall Islands, and Tuvalu in building their climate and disaster resilience capabilities. The initiative focuses on ensuring that these nations are better equipped to adapt to rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and other environmental challenges that threaten their existence and ability to grow and prosper. It will provide both technical expertise and financial resources needed to implement transformative adaptation strategies, integrating the latest science, local knowledge, and innovative solutions. Six PIllars of the Triple A Initiatives Source: Asian Development Bank. The Triple A Initiative will be based on the countries’ priorities as identified in their national adaptation plans and the assessment of long-term climate risks and possible adaptation pathways. The initiative will support: Developing long-term adaptation pathways to enhance resilience and inform investment decisions Identifying barriers and opportunities for implementing transformative adaptation investments Conceptualization of projects leading to long-term resilience Mobilizing programmatic financing and identifying funding opportunities to scale up sustainable adaptation investments Developing the knowledge required to design and implement the required investments Building the local capacity to design and implement the required investments Fostering partnerships with experts, regional actors, and the private sector to accelerate adaptation efforts Triple A will work closely with other ongoing initiatives in these countries, national and regional partners, knowledge institutes, and the private sector—with a strategic focus on long-term planning and adaptation. With initial support from ADB and the government of Ireland, the initiative aims to catalyze global action—mobilizing necessary financing and forging transformative partnerships to meet the urgent and growing adaptation needs of atoll nations. Resources A. Giardino and M. Vousdoukas. 2024. Rising Seas: Building Resilience Against Coastal Flooding in Asia and the Pacific. Development Asia. 7 August. Asian Development Bank. 2022. Sea-Level Change in the Pacific Islands Region: A Review of Evidence to Inform Asian Development Bank Guidance on Selecting Sea-Level Projections for Climate Risk and Adaptation Assessments. K. Weiss. 2015. Before We Drown We May Die of Thirst. Journal of Nature. 526. pp. 624–627. M. Vousdoukas, et al. 2023. Small Island Developing States Under Threat by Rising Seas Even in a 1.5 °C Warming World. Journal of Nature Sustainability. 6. pp. 1552–1564. Republic of Marshall Islands National Adaptation Plan. Ask the Experts Alessio Giardino Senior Climate Change Specialist (Coastal Adaptation), Climate Change and Sustainable Development Department, Asian Development Bank Dr. Alessio Giardino is a senior climate and coastal adaptation specialist with over 20 years’ experience in climate adaptation, disaster risk management, and coastal resilience. He leads the knowledge and innovation work to inform the design of resilient investments in the water sector, specifically on coastal adaptation. Prior to ADB, he worked at Deltares in The Netherlands. He holds a MSc in Environmental Engineering (cum laude) from the University of Turin in Italy, and a PhD in Coastal Engineering from KU Leuven in Belgium. Follow Alessio Giardino on Asian Development Bank (ADB) The Asian Development Bank is a leading multilateral development bank supporting sustainable, inclusive, and resilient growth across Asia and the Pacific. Working with its members and partners to solve complex challenges together, ADB harnesses innovative financial tools and strategic partnerships to transform lives, build quality infrastructure, and safeguard our planet. Founded in 1966, ADB is owned by 69 members—49 from the region. Follow Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Leave your question or comment in the section below: View the discussion thread.