Introduction Myanmar is experiencing a severe food security crisis, and millions of people are struggling to access basic nutrition. Political instability, economic hardship, and environmental challenges intensify the crisis. These factors undermine the population’s well-being and threaten the country’s long-term development. The country urgently needs both emergency support and sustainable solutions to combat food insecurity and strengthen the agricultural sector. Stabilizing food production plays a key role in addressing food insecurity. Myanmar depends heavily on domestic agricultural output, and nearly 70% of the rural population works in the sector. The country is a major rice exporter, with agriculture contributing 31% of total exports and 45% of employment in 2023. Boosting production will help secure a stable food supply while also supporting livelihoods. Analysis Falling agricultural output The value added by agriculture, forestry, and fishing fell to $12.7 billion in 2023, down from the pre-crisis level of $15.5 billion in 2019. Low agricultural inputs due to rising input costs, driven by exchange rate depreciation, along with security concerns and logistics disruptions, have led to persistently low production levels since 2021. In 2024, rice production, a staple food in Myanmar, is projected to decline by 3.7%, while maize output is expected to drop by 2.4%. Cereal production will likely continue to fall, as the agriculture sector deteriorates under the cumulative impact of multiple shocks since 2021. These include extreme weather events, ongoing conflict, and the devastating 7.7-magnitude earthquake that struck the country on 28 March 2025. Conflict’s toll on agriculture The widespread conflict that began in 2021 has significantly limited agricultural production across Myanmar. By 2024, the number of internally displaced people reached 3.5 million, primarily from rural areas. This mass displacement disrupted livelihoods and agricultural activities by rendering farmland inaccessible, reducing available labor and disrupting input supply and transport networks, especially in regions where access to farmland remains restricted. In severely affected areas, both cultivation and harvesting have been curtailed. A 2024 study by the International Food Policy Research Institute indicates that each additional conflict incident per 1,000 inhabitants correlates with a 14% decline in output value and a 15% drop in output value per acre (0.40 hectare). Furthermore, 24% of farmers impacted by the conflict have reduced their planting areas. Research also shows that the conflict depresses farm gate prices, reducing farm income and intensifying poverty and food insecurity. Rising costs and currency pressure on farmers Between January 2024 and May 2025, the Myanmar kyat depreciated by an average of over 24%. Since many agricultural inputs, such as fertilizers, fuel, and quality seeds, are imported from neighboring countries, this depreciation has significantly increased input prices. As a result, farmers face greater difficulty affording essential supplies. This financial strain has reduced investment in crop maintenance and agricultural infrastructure, further weakening production levels across the sector. Broken supply chains and market access barriers Logistics disruptions have severely impacted agriculture and food security in Myanmar. Political instability and civil unrest continue to interrupt supply chains and restrict market access for both farmers and consumers. Roadblocks, checkpoints, and security risks hinder the transportation of agricultural products from rural areas to urban markets, driving up costs and reducing food availability. These disruptions also limit access to essential services, including healthcare, water, sanitation, and education, placing an even greater burden on the most vulnerable populations. Climate shocks and natural disasters Agricultural production in Myanmar, which depends heavily on weather conditions, continues to struggle with the impacts of climate change and natural hazards. The country remains highly vulnerable to extreme weather events, which have grown more frequent and destructive in recent years. With a score of 9 out of 10 on the INFORM Index, a global disaster risk assessment tool, Myanmar faces a high risk of natural hazards and lacks adequate preparedness to manage them. Flooding accounts for 11% of all disasters triggered by natural hazards, affecting more than two million people annually. In 2023, Cyclone Mocha caused $2.24 billion in damages, equivalent to nearly 3.4% of Myanmar’s GDP. In 2024, catastrophic floods from Typhoon Yagi and intense monsoon rains impacted over one million people across 70 townships, submerging crops and livestock and severely affecting livelihoods. Limited resources delayed early recovery efforts. The 7.7-magnitude earthquake on 28 March 2025 further intensified food insecurity. It damaged over 3.7 million hectares of cropland and critical infrastructure, including irrigation systems, storage facilities, and agricultural assets. According to reports from the Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Bank, the earthquake disrupted harvesting, reduced food availability, and increased vulnerabilities in already crisis-affected regions. Structural damages are estimated at $11 billion or about 14% of GDP. Preliminary findings from an ADB study suggest that approximately 22% of the total population and 12% of agricultural GDP in the hardest-hit areas were adversely affected. These food security challenges have also deepened socioeconomic inequalities and fueled conflict, weakening governance and institutional capacity to respond effectively to multiple, overlapping crises. Escalating hunger and inflation Food insecurity has escalated rapidly, affecting 15.2 million people or 28% of Myanmar’s population in 2024–2025, compared to fewer than 6 million before 2021. In addition to ongoing conflict, trade disruptions, and declining food production, a sharp drop in job opportunities and soaring inflation have further limited access to food, especially for marginalized and vulnerable groups. Between February 2024 and February 2025, prices of basic food items surged: rice rose by 14%, vegetable oil by 49%, pulses by 35%, eggs by 83%, and salt by 47%. Inflation remained in double digits, averaging 27.8% in 2024 and projected to reach 29.3% in 2025, driven by steep increases in both food and non-food prices. To cope, food-insecure households have cut food spending and increased borrowing. According to a United Nations report, eating less is a common coping strategy among households in the lowest asset quintiles, leading to health and nutrition problems and long-term negative effects on the cognitive development of young people. These households also face limited borrowing options and often fail to meet microfinance lending criteria. As a result, many turn to informal money lenders who charge high interest rates, increasing the risk of falling into long-term debt traps. Implications Myanmar’s food security outlook remains precarious, highlighting the urgent need for both emergency support and long-term solutions that build a more resilient and productive agricultural sector. Foreign governments, international development organizations, and nongovernmental organizations continue to provide food assistance to the most vulnerable households, especially in conflict-affected areas. Since 2023, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has issued grants through UN agencies to address essential needs, including food security, health services, and community resilience, in response to the humanitarian crisis caused by conflict and natural disasters. These grants aim to deliver comprehensive humanitarian assistance that meets both immediate and medium-term needs, while also strengthening long-term community resilience. Support includes providing critical food, nutrition, and other essentials, improving access to basic social services and assistance, and restoring and expanding livelihoods, jobs, and community assets. In Myanmar’s fragile context, restoring peace and stability is essential for agricultural recovery. At the same time, immediate support is needed to sustain rural livelihoods, particularly in conflict-affected, marginalized, and food-insecure areas. Improving smallholder access to affordable capital through microfinance and community credit schemes is vital. Equally important is ensuring the supply of quality inputs, such as certified seeds and fertilizers. Scaling up technical assistance focused on climate-resilient and locally appropriate farming practices will help farmers adapt to changing conditions. Efforts to strengthen agricultural pricing systems, through minimum support prices or inclusive contract farming, can protect farmers from market volatility. Investments in rural infrastructure and digital market platforms will improve access and profitability, while capacity building in post-harvest handling and business skills can enhance the sector’s competitiveness. A coordinated, conflict-sensitive approach that links short-term humanitarian support with long-term development is key to improving food security and rural livelihoods in Myanmar. Resource Asian Development Bank. 2025. Spatial Dimensions of Humanitarian Crisis and Vulnerabilities in Myanmar. Ask the Experts Eve Cherry Lynn Economics Officer, Asian Development Bank, Myanmar Resident Mission Eve Cherry Lynn is an economics officer at the Asian Development Bank's Myanmar Resident Mission, where she conducts economic assessments and contributes to knowledge products related to Myanmar's economy. She has an academic background and holds two master's degrees: one in development policy and another in economics. Joel Mangahas Principal Country Specialist, Southeast Asia Department, Asian Development Bank Joel Mangahas is a seasoned professional with over 30 years of experience in governance and international development, including more than 16 years at the Asian Development Bank. He has also served as a professor at the University of the Philippines. Joel holds two doctoral degrees, three master’s degrees, and is a certified Project Management Professional. 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