CARTIF: A Potential Catalyst for Cross-Border Trade and Investment in the CAREC Region

Recent trends in cross-border trade and investment flows in the CAREC region have been mixed. Between 2015 and 2024, intraregional merchandise exports more than doubled in absolute terms. However, intraregional trade remained roughly unchanged at around 6% as a share of CAREC countries’ total merchandise trade with the world (Figure 1).

Figure 1: CAREC Region—Selected Indicators of Merchandise Trade, 2015–2024

Source: UNCTADstat Data Centre (accessed 21 November 2025; authors’ calculations).

Trends in cross-border investment flows have varied across the countries. Between 2015 and 2024, net foreign direct investment inflows increased in Mongolia, Pakistan, and Uzbekistan but declined in most other CAREC countries (Figure 2).

Figure 2: CAREC Countries—Net Inflows of Foreign Direct Investment, 2015 and 2024

Source: World Development Indicators database (accessed 21 November 2025).

According to the Asia-Pacific Regional Cooperation and Integration Index, CAREC countries’ trade and investment integration score rose from 0.15 in 2006 to 0.17 in 2022. It nevertheless remained below the score of several other regional groupings, including the Greater Mekong Subregion Economic Cooperation Program and the South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation Initiative (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Selected Regional Groupings—Trade and Investment Integration Scores, 2006 and 2022

CAREC = Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation, EU = European Union, GMS = Greater Mekong Subregion, SASEC = South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation.
Note: The data are for the Trade and Investment dimension of the Asia-Pacific Regional Cooperation and Integration Index (ARCII). ARCII scores range from 0 (no integration) to 1 (full integration).
Source: ARCII database (accessed 21 November 2025).

There is still substantial untapped potential for expanding mutually beneficial trade and investment across borders in the CAREC region. Three earlier CAREC studies that informed the CARTIF concept^[2] identify a range of persistent barriers to cross-border trade and investment flows in the region, including (i) tariffs and nontariff measures on trade in goods, (ii) differences in service market regulations, (iii) limited recognition of standards and conformity assessments, (iv) restrictions on the movement of businesspeople and service providers, and (v) various domestic obstacles that increase costs and uncertainty for traders and investors. Hence, tariffs are not addressed by CARTIF’s Initial Protocols because they warrant a gradual/differentiated approach.

Complementary evidence from the CAREC study on transit trade facilitation in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, and from the ADB study on trade and transport facilitation along CAREC corridors, highlights persistent legal, regulatory, institutional, and infrastructure-related barriers that impede transit trade in the three countries and constrain international shipments along the corridors. Together, these findings point to the need for increased efforts by CAREC countries to reduce remaining barriers to cross-border trade and investment. The empirical assessment of different configurations of a CAREC free trade agreement further indicates that enhanced facilitation of cross-border trade and investment can generate considerable economic gains for CAREC countries, particularly for landlocked economies.

CARTIF is intended to serve as a legal framework for closer cooperation among CAREC countries in cross-border trade and investment facilitation. It covers a broad range of policy areas related to the movement of goods, services, and capital across borders.

CARTIF has both WTO-plus features—enhanced collaboration in areas already covered by the WTO agreements, such as trade facilitation, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, technical barriers to trade, and trade in services—and WTO-extra elements that involve topics not comprehensively covered under the current WTO agreements, such as investment facilitation, digital trade, and supply chain connectivity. By bringing this broad agenda into a single framework, CARTIF reflects the growing nexus between cross-border trade and investment and the need for coherent, mutually reinforcing reforms.

A key feature of CARTIF is its flexible, modular design. Under the draft text, a binding Framework Agreement, together with a set of Initial Protocols, is to form a single undertaking that applies to all participating countries once in force. Additional protocols may be negotiated later by interested parties, allowing cooperation to deepen gradually. Accordingly, CARTIF allows countries to engage at a pace consistent with their national priorities and levels of readiness. This approach mirrors relevant international experience, including the “ASEAN Minus X” formula, elements of open regionalism in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, and the balance between ambition and flexibility embodied in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.

CARTIF is to develop an institutional mechanism, which will be agreed by the CAREC governments. The preliminary proposed structure includes a Ministerial Council, a Senior Officials Council, a Regional Trade and Investment Committee, and a Secretariat. These bodies are intended to support the implementation, administration, facilitation, monitoring and evaluation, and further development of CARTIF.

CARTIF is also to have a transparent, rule-based dispute settlement mechanism, emphasizing consultation and mutual agreement, with additional procedures available if issues remain unresolved. Decisions issued under this mechanism are to be binding on the parties concerned.

Negotiations on CARTIF are expected to commence in early 2026. For these negotiations to be successful, active engagement by the governments of CAREC countries—as well as strong and sustained support from other key stakeholders, including the private sector and development partners—will be essential. Additional analytical work and capacity building can help officials navigate the technical complexities involved and identify mutually beneficial solutions to issues associated with cross-border trade and investment facilitation.

If successfully concluded and enacted, CARTIF can become a major catalyst for the expansion of cross-border trade and investment in the CAREC region. It would support the development of regional value chains and production networks, promote economic diversification, and boost shared prosperity in the region.

^[1] The Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Program comprises 11 member countries: Afghanistan*, Azerbaijan, People’s Republic of China, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
* ADB’s regular assistance to Afghanistan has been on hold since 15 August 2021, but the bank has supported the basic needs of the Afghan people since 2022 through a special arrangement with United Nations agencies.

^[2] Asian Development Bank (ADB). 2025. Trade Policy in Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation. Part I of Considerations for a CAREC Program Free Trade Agreement. Manila.
ADB. 2025. Empirical Assessment of Different Configurations of a Free Trade Agreement. Part II of Considerations for a CAREC Program Free Trade Agreement. Manila.
ADB. 2025. Prospects for a CAREC Program Free Trade Agreement. A Synthesis Report. Manila.

Bishkek Ministerial Declaration on the Launch of Negotiations on the CAREC Trade and Investment Facilitation Partnership Agreement.

Draft Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Trade and Investment Facilitation Partnership Agreement.